November the Best Time to Move?

Posted in Rent Hop News on November 6th, 2010 by Lee – Be the first to comment

Wow, I saw this while glancing through my inbox yesterday.  505 West 37th is offering 2 months free + 2 months OP!!  That’s 4/14 months of discount off the gross from the landlord’s point of view!

2mo-op

There are a few interesting ways to play this deal.  If you are a broker, do you try advertising the open listings with 3 months free as a net effective, hoping to fold half your OP into the rent during the negotiation process?

If you are a renter, do you walk into the leasing office demanding 3 months free?  Better yet, can you find a licensed broker to be your roommate, and then you all get the full 4 months free??  Note that not all buildings by this management company are offering such a great deal.  I believe 2 Gold is still at 1 month free + 1 month OP.  Still, after gathering data from the past three years, we’re pretty sure November is the magic sweet spot for moving, if you can somehow sync your schedule accordingly.

Breaking The Lease?

Posted in Rent Hop News on October 9th, 2010 by lawrence – Be the first to comment
Breaking A Lease?

Breaking A Lease?

Breaking the Lease?

Have you or one of your friends ever been in this situation? You signed a 12-month lease 3 months ago. All of a sudden, your roommate bails or you’re forced to relocate. Can you break your lease without repercussions? The short answer is – no.  However, there are ways to mitigate the damage. First, let’s take a general look what you or the landlord can / cannot do. NOTE, however, that we at RentHop.com are not lawyers, nor are we giving legal advice. Be sure to do your own due diligence or contact a legal representative with any questions. In general, though, a lease cannot be broken by either landlord or renter (unless expressly written into the lease).

The landlord’s rights:

  • The renter cannot break the lease unless the landlord agrees. An interesting tidbit goes with this. If the renter happens to die, their inheritors need to assume the lease.
  • In general, you cannot assign a lease to another person. In an assignment, the new tenant assumes most (if not all) of the responsibilities of the original tenant. Assignments differ from sublets. In a sublet, the original tenant is still liable to the landlord.
  • If the renter “breaks” the lease by abandoning the property, the landlord can rent the property out again or take possession of the contents.
  • If the renter refuses to pay, the landlord can take the renter to court.
  • For a building with > 4 units, a landlord can reject a sublet with reasonable grounds. However, a landlord cannot reject a sublet on unreasonable grounds (for example, because of racial discrimination).

The renter’s rights:

  • Under most circumstances, the tenant can sublet his apartment (as long as he is liable for the lease if the sublessee defaults).
  • The landlord cannot break the lease or change the rent for the duration of the lease.
  • If the property changes hands, the new property owner needs to honor the lease.
  • If a renter abandons a property and the landlord manages to find a new tenant. The landlord cannot collect rent from both tenants.

Given these nuggets of information, being locked into a lease may seem unfair. But the lease is binding on both sides. You wouldn’t want the landlord to kick your out on a whim right? Nor would you want to be out on the street because a property changed hands. So what can you do if you need to move out before your lease ends?

I’m in one of these situations – what can I do?

  1. Read your lease and rider very closely to see if you are given any additional rights.
  2. Speak with the landlord!
  • Some landlords are friendlier than others and may be willing to let you break the lease. For example, rents may have risen dramatically, and the landlord will benefit if he can find a renter quickly. In the depths of the recession in 2008, some landlords even had special clauses that let tenants break their leases should they lose their jobs.
  • Otherwise, if you can find a new tenant, the landlord might be willing to let you assign the lease (provided – of course – that the rents you’re paying are the same).
  • In general, unless you’re subletting from a co-op, you can sublet the apartment.
  • Some landlords may be willing to help you find a new tenant. In this case though, you’re liable for the lease if they don’t find one (risky option).

How do I sublet my apartment?

The time of year, the remaining term of the lease, and the market rent vs the lease rent will affect your ability to sublet your apartment. Finding a tenant in the winter will be more difficult than during the prime June/July/August months. In addition, if the market rent is lower than your contract rent, you may lose money if you choose to rent out the apartment below your contract rent (but this is still way better than letting your unit sit idle). To get a good sense of where you want to price your apartment, check out the listings on RentHop.com for your location/size. To advertise your listing, definitely post on RentHop as well as craigslist.

For further reading, take a look at the tenant’s rights guide on the Housing and Urban Development site.

NYC Apartments Website Run by Russian Spy Anna Chapman

Posted in Rent Hop News on August 8th, 2010 by Lee – Be the first to comment

Wow.  We always knew that the New York real estate scene had some fairly shady characters.  Forget about the dozens of landing page sites that come and go each year.  They are the small fish that clutter our search results.  We click on them occasionally, but the friendly back-button saves us from any damage beyond a quick ten-second glimpse of the content lacking, ad-filled pages.

Anyone who spends serious time in the Manhattan real estate sector knows that things are just VERY different here than anywhere else in the country and world.  There is no real MLS / IDX, or anything close to a centralized repository of all listings.  Open listings are the norm as opposed to exclusives, and brokers eagerly play along.  Best of all, anyone who digs deep into the various real estate dynasties will discover a complex web of relationships, partnerships, and in some cases feuds between blood relatives.

A few brave souls have attempted to untangle and make sense of the mess, but for every upstanding startup in this space, there are a seemingly equal number of con-artists out to make a quick buck.  Last month, however, we discovered an entirely new reason to enter the business.  Russian spy Anna Chapman was the mastermind behind NYC Rentals dot com.  I never quite understood her true motives, even after watching her pitch interview.  Needless to say, it’s rather disturbing that the NYC rental space has now become the cover occupation for international espionage!

In light of such discoveries, it may be time to introduce ourselves a bit more comprehensively.  Specifically, there are a few holes in Mike Grynbaum’s NY Times RentHop article.   For the first time ever revealed on our site, we unveil three great mysteries.  Yes, we originally discussed our ideas over sushi, and while I’d love to think I’m an up-and-coming cook, we were dining at the Murray Hill Today at 32nd St. and 5th Ave (now called Ichiumi, and from what I hear has seriously declined in quality).  We were working at hedge funds at the time, D. E. Shaw & Co. and Traxis Partners.  As for my abilities as a salesperson… the jury is out, but I’ve done enough transactions to learn that logic and emotion are both irrelevant compared to fostering trust!

The End of the Convertible Flex-2?

Posted in Rent Hop News on July 18th, 2010 by Lee – Be the first to comment

One of the greatest economies of scale phenomenon Manhattan renters utilize each year is the convertible 1BR, aka the flex-2.  While an individual renter looking for a nice Midtown or Downtown studio will pay $1800-$2200, a pair of renters looking for a two-bedroom can save huge amounts of money splitting the right type of apartment.  And that type isn’t a true two-bedroom, which ranges from $3600-$4100 and offers a spacious living room along with some of the best views in the building.  The best savings come from the convertible 1BR, a special kind of one-bedroom where it’s possible to build a temporary partition wall and convert part of the living room into a new bedroom.

The idea sounds so simple, yet these convertible 1BRs are a bit of a rare find and must meet a few important criteria.  They are so popular that most landlords and brokers actually clarify whenever a one-bedroom happens to be convertible (they are flexible enough to be turned into a 2BR, hence a flex-2).  Sadly at this time, our own NYC rental apartment search engine allows for filtering on 1-bedrooms+ or 2-bedrooms+, but there is no specific filter for the Flex-2.

What does a flex-2 mean?  Most importantly, the landlord or buildings must allow temporary walls, or at least will agree to turn a blind eye if you put up a wall and promise to take it down without leaving a trace (wall companies can put up simple walls with doors starting at $1200 and up, with extra for sound-proofing, L-shapes, and T-shapes).  The living room must be large enough to support the new bedroom, and also not block access to the original bedroom (otherwise you wind up with the dreaded railroad two-bedroom).  Lastly, the bathroom needs to be accessible from outside both the original and converted bedrooms, otherwise one roommate will need to trespass every day for showering, brushing teeth, etc.

If all goes well, two renters can bag a flex-2 for about $2400-$3000, plus the amortized cost of the wall (add $100-150).  They might be left with a tiny living room (and no windows in it), the kitchen and entrance area might lose all sources of natural light, and the roommates may quarrel over whether an equal payment of the rent is still fair.  However, in total, they will have found decent Manhattan housing for about $500 less than the cost of a comparable studio.  Sadly, as the New York Times writes this weekend, the flex-2 may be coming to an end.

As the city aggressively enforces a long existent but widely ignored code, walls are falling across Manhattan, radically altering the housing landscape for scores of young professionals. Thousands of renters are being told that the walls that have been put up over the years without approval from the Department of Buildings must come down. And new renters are being informed that if they wish to divide a space, they will need to rely on bookshelves or partial walls that don’t reach the ceiling.

To be fair, the walls apparently were never legal in most cases.  What has accelerated enforcement is a new stance finding landlords liable for certain tragedies that occur because of the walls.  Specifically, manslaughter penalties if the wall violates fire codes.  A partition and isolate a room to lack fire sprinklers, or may block emergency exit routes.

falling_wall

Unfortunately, the death of flex-2′s will certainly price many roommate pairs out of Manhattan for the foreseeable future, and will hurt landlords who can no longer collect a flex-2 premium on their apartments (and the flex-3 and junior-1 apartments should take a hit as well).  If you happen to live in one of these apartments, you probably don’t need to panic just yet.  In fact, we’d recommend keeping quiet if you have a wall.  Why bother asking your landlord a question when you really don’t want to hear the wrong answer?  Stay silent, enjoy your wall while you can, and start browsing next season’s IKEA catalog for some tall Billy bookshelves or Asian folding screens.

The Right Apartment for Me – Walk Up vs Doorman/Elevator

Posted in Apartment Hunting, Market Trends on June 21st, 2010 by lawrence – Be the first to comment

It’s June, and your lease is up by July 1. You’ve always lived in a doorman/elevator building, but are now considering a walk-up. You’ve heard some horror stories, but aren’t sure. What are some factors to worry about? Well, have no fear, we at RentHop will dissect the differences and try to assign a monetary value to them. In fact, one of the co-founders recently moved into a walk-up after having spent 4-years in a luxury high-rise – so he’ll be sharing his views.

Walk-Up vs High-Rise

Walk-Up vs Doorman / Elevator

1) Doorman - How necessary is the doorman? Well, let’s see what a doorman provides:

Pros

  • Taking packages – Probably the main value of the doorman. Few of us have the luxury of physically taking packages while at home. And most of us don’t like having our packages sent to work or needing to pick them up at the local post office. Have no fear, the doorman is here. Not only does he take packages, but he also deals with deliveries from Fresh Direct or Poland Springs. Definitely valuable.
  • Lost Keys +Lockouts - Ever been locked out and need to ring your neighbors or hire a locksmith? Definitely not fun. Maybe you have an extra set around the office, but having a doorman to let you in is a huge positive, especially for those of us with bad memories.
  • Easy Guest Access – You never want to leave your keys under the doormats. I mean, this is NYC after all. A doorman takes care of this. You can leave your guest’s information, and the doorman will let them in – hassle free.
  • Helping With Bags – If you’re not a heavy traveler, you might use this service three or four times a year. Not too significant.
  • Security - Probably the least important reason to have a doorman. In most apartment units with a locked outer door, there is a very slim chance something bad happens. And to be honest, if some guy shows up with a pistol, there’s not too much a doorman can do.

Cons

  • Higher Rent – For a full-time doorman building, you’re looking at an extra $100 – $200 dollars. That’s ~ $1,200 to $2,400 a year. Is that worth it to you?
  • Year-End Tips - Aside from the higher rents, you’ll have to deal with the year-end tip. OK, if you’re a complete cheap-skate, you might decide not to tip. There’s nothing the doormen can really do (except give you dirty glares behind your back). However, if you’re a normal New Yorker, depending on the # of doormen and the size of your building, you’ll probably put up $50-100 bucks/doorman or porter.
  • Awkwardness - Do you really want someone keeping tabs on your life? Your doorman will know a lot about you, including who comes in and out, your work schedule (and party schedule). Probably not too bad, unless you decided not to leave a tip at all.

How much should you value a doorman? On average, a doorman building will be between $100 – 200 dollars more expensive. This doesn’t include the customary tip on the holidays. Look forward to spending an extra $2,200 for a doorman building.

2) Elevator - Are elevators all they’re cut out to be? So first off, except for the higher costs, there is very little downside to having an elevator. Obviously, an elevator is necessary for most buildings > 5 floors (since only the ultimately athletic will ever want to live on the 6th or 7th floor of a walk-up). For buildings < 5 floors, you might benefit slightly during the move-in or move-out process. If you have a lot of “stuff,” or you’re moving to a large apartment, this might be an issue. Remember, though, that you can always hire movers if you need to. Aside from that, needing to walk 2-3 floors isn’t really as much of an issue as most people think. On the other hand, if you have a baby and need to carry around a carriage, this might be annoying. An elevator might add $50 dollars to your rent – so decide if that’s worth it to you.

Other Things To Worry About

1) Cable/Internet Problems – Newer buildings have better cable/internet infrastructure and wiring. For some walk-ups, you might have haphazardly laid out cables that go onto the roof or into the basement. Routine building maintenance might knock out your cable/internet (which is painful in this day and age).

2) AC - A decent majority of older buildings don’t have built-in ACs. In fact, even some doorman/elevator buildings don’t. This has more to do with the building age than anything else. Not having AC in New York is a killer, especially into the humid summer months. If your building doesn’t have AC, make sure your windows can support one (or if not, you’ll have to get a portable AC unit).

3) Hot Water Issues – Depending on how many people live in the building, your building may have a smaller than normal water boiler/heater. As a result, you might run out of hot water late into the night. Rare this would happen, but beware!

Living in Chelsea

Posted in Apartment Hunting, Rent Hop News on June 8th, 2010 by lawrence – Be the first to comment

The team at RentHop was recently walking around Chelsea, and managed to snap some great shots of the area. We figured it would be a good segue into an article about the area. After a brief introduction on the boundaries of the neighborhood, we’ll move into its history and what it has to offer to the inhabitants. Finally, we’ll talk about finding an apartment in Chelsea and what the costs are.

Where is it?

Chelsea is located south of Hell’s Kitchen and the Garment District and north of the Meatpacking District. More accurately, the neighborhood has been defined as the area between 14th and 34th street + west of the river. You can always check out the available apartments in Chelsea here. In addition, if you access our map-based apartment search, you can see a great overlay of the region.

History

British Major Thomas Clarke named his Manhattan house Chelsea, after the manor of Chelsea, London. The original “Chelsea” home resided on 23rd Street, between 9th and 10th where it eventually grew from a large garden into a full-fledged residential neighborhood. During the mid 1800s, the newly built Hudson River Railroad industrialized the area. Towards the 1900s, the neighborhood was dominated by the Irish, and housed longshoremen who worked at the warehouses on the nearby piers. The neighborhood drastically changed moving into the 21st century, and has now become an alternative shopping destination to SoHo. In addition,  there has been an influx from the arts community – and the area houses the Rubin Museum of Art, the Chelsea Art Museum, the Graffiti Research Lab, and the Dance Theatre Workshop.

Chelsea Hotel

Chelsea Hotel

What the Neighborhood has to Offer

Location, location, location. Chelsea is sandwiched between Hell’s Kitchen to the north and the Meatpacking district to the south. For those who enjoy nightlife – the Meatpacking district is where it’s at. The area is packed with restaurants and nightclubs catering to young professionals and hipsters. It also contains a number of high-end boutiques such as Diane von Furstenberg, Christian Louboutin, and Alexander McQueen. For those who enjoy good eats and affordable food, Hell’s Kitchen has that. The area is flooded with affordable restaurants of all types, including a block full of 99-pizza establishments.

AMC Loews - Chelsea

AMC Loews - Chelsea

Aside from the surrounding areas, Chelsea itself is not to be scoffed at. It is home to a number of landmark buildings and areas such as Chelsea Piers, Chelsea Market, and Hotel Chelsea. You can shoot rounds of golf at Chelsea Piers (home to a large sports / entertainment complex) or visit Chelsea Market for a number of food vendors such as bakeries, groceries, fish vendors, fruit merchants, and wine sellers. Chelsea has a wide variety of food options, ranging from the cheap/affordable chains (Chipotle) to the high-end Morimoto. Finally, while a little old, there is a great AMC Loews Theatre in the center of Chelsea.

Transportation

Like most areas of Manhattan, you’re always close to a source of public transit. The ACE and 123 lines run through the center of Chelsea, both having stops on 23rd street (on different avenues). Both lines give you flexibility to reach most of the city, though you might need to switch if you’re headed up to the Upper West Side. Finally, like most parts of Manhattan, taxi’s are around every corner.

Where to Live

While Chelsea generally has a higher percentage of owner units over rental units, you won’t have trouble finding an apartment. There are a number of Luxury high-rises in the area, including the Olivia by Stonehenge, and the Ohm NYC. We also have a number of other landlords like B&L and Jakobson. Definitely check out our apartment selection on RentHop.

Luxury High-Rise in Chelsea

Luxury High-Rise in Chelsea

A walk down Chelsea

A walk down Chelsea

Landlords Experimenting with Incentive Reductions

Posted in Rent Hop News on May 26th, 2010 by Lee – Be the first to comment

Goldfarb announced today that starting next week, they will stop paying OPs (broker fees).  Along with the Brodsky “1M free or 1M OP” policy and steady incentive reductions from Stonehenge, this latest news significantly reduces the no fee luxury highrise options in the Midtown West and Columbus Circle area.

op_left

Even landlords in Financial District and Battery Park City, the incentive powerhouse neighborhoods since the 2008 recession, have begun experimenting with reductions.  Solaire and Verdesian, the flagship Albanese properties in BPC, have hiked up rents and stopped giving renters one month free (they will still pay broker fees).  Metro Loft NYC, which manages The Crest (67 Wall) and 17 John, have scaled back their free rent offerings across the board.  Tenants last year scored 3 months free on an 18 month lease or 2 months free on 14 months.  Although Metro Loft is still one of the most generous in all of FiDi, their latest blasts offer only 1 month on 13 months, or 2 months on 18 months (they still pay broker fees in addition to the free rent).

We always knew this was coming.  Landlords spent the last two years adapting to the Manhattan housing downturn and are constantly on the lookout for an end to the longest renters’ market since 2001.  However, this is not necessarily the end of the good times for renters.  Around this time last year, we saw the same experimental reductions from a number of landlords.  After a few weeks of long vacancies and little traction, the landlords eventually gave up and joined the bandwagon of OPs, free rent, and other giveaways.

This time may be different.  Barring the last few weeks of EUR related jitters, the S&P 500 was 30% higher this year compared to early May last year.  Manhattan housing sales from the first quarter of 2010 were double 2009, and the job market for financial professionals is making a healthy rebound.  Also, the sheer number and breadth of landlords betting for a rental rebound is much higher this Summer.  Instead of a few brave pioneers attempting to go against the free rent grain, we are seeing several popular, multi-building landlords pulling back their incentives, allowing them to avoid the prisoners’ dilemma problem.  If some landlords are paying broker fees and others are not, the brokers will take all their clients to the OP-paying landlords.  However, if a large group of major landlords all cease their incentives simultaneously, brokers have no choice but to take their clients to collect-your-own-fee landlords.

Whether we are truly at the end of a total no-fee Manhattan remains to be seen.  Check back on our deals page as we update the latest offerings in the RentHop NYC Apartment Rental deals section.

Understanding Brokerage Commission Models

Posted in Rent Hop News on April 26th, 2010 by Lee – Be the first to comment

Every real estate brokerage wants to differentiate themselves from the competition.  The heads of any firm will tout their unique dedication to excellent customer service, their high integrity and moral standards, their hard work ethics, and their innovative operations.   All of this conveys zero bits of information, as Guy Kawasaki’s opposite test shows.  Just as every software company claims they will build something fast, scalable, and easy-to-use, no real estate brokerage says “our firm believes in crappy customer service, sleazy operations, and lazy agents.”

To actually gauge corporate culture, the most important feature to examine is the incentive structure, aka, the commission splits that determine how the agents are paid.

200547695-003

Traditional Brokerage Model

In a traditional brokerage, an agent splits roughly half of each commission with the house.  That is, a $3,000 commission check will normally result in about $1,500 paid to the agent.  The firm provides office space, training, mentoring, a website, IT infrastructure and support, branding, advertising, and most importantly, client leads.

This is still by far the most popular model today, and has historically been the most profitable for the owners of the firm.  For the agents, the advantages are numerous.  New realtors usually receive free training and mentoring, and may be matched with a more experienced agent for the first few months.  Also, potential clients who call the firm’s general phone line or enter the physical office will be matched with an available agent (which tend to be the less busy, newer members of the industry).  For the veterans, a traditional firm often provides slightly more attractive commission splits, recognizing that the agent obtains many of her own leads independent of the firm.

Discount Brokerage Model

In a discount brokerage model, the agents tend to receive less than half of the commission split.  In some cases the agent doesn’t receive a percentage of the commissions at all, but instead an a la carte fee for services performed.  Either way, the firm plays a much bigger role generating leads than in a traditional brokerage.  Examples include ZipRealty, Foxtons New York (now out of business), and Redfin.

The primary advantage for agents is that they do not need to spend as much time farming for client leads.  Instead, the firm uses their Internet presence and rebate offers to woo potential buyers and renters, and as a result the agent is willing to accept a lower than normal commission.  As an example, a home buyer who registers with ZipRealty and buys a home for $300,000 might be offered a 20% commission refund at closing from their buyer broker.  With a standard 6% sales commission co-brokered between the listing broker and buyer broker, the client would receive 20% of 3% refunded, or $1,800 refunded at closing.

High Split Models

The latest twist in brokerage models is almost the opposite of a discount broker (from the agent’s point of view).  Here, the agent gets significantly more than 50% of the commission split, and in some cases reaches 90% or more of the commission.  As expected, agents earning such high splits do significantly more of the work in finding clients and closing deals.

In New York City, a number of high split commission firms have gained traction in recent years.  They typically offer very limited office space, if any, and do not have a retail storefront for attracting walk-in leads.  Agents are expected to work from home on a day-to-day basis, but the firm often provides some technology support such as email accounts, a website, and some listing management tools.

Two types of real estate agents benefit heavily from joining these firms.  First, veteran agents who generate their own leads benefit from the high commission splits.  Also, agents who want to commit part-time benefit from the flexibility of working at home and only working on their own sourced deals.

Currently the biggest players in Manhattan are Pari Passu Realty Corp, The Level Group, and Charles Ruttenberg Realty.  A typical rental transaction may pay a $3,000 rental commission to the brokerage, where the agent keeps $2,500.  The agents also often pay a small monthly infrastructure fee of $100-$300.

2010 Census and a Study of the Past

Posted in Rent Hop News on April 7th, 2010 by lawrence – Be the first to comment

A New Census!

I’m sure many of us have seen the flyers laid out across tables in coffee shops or have gotten the survey mails (yet another form to fill out in light of the soon-to-be-due taxes). It’s time again for the decennial census. While estimates are taken every year in New York, the full census counts everyone. Of course, all that information is currently being collated (a long and lengthy process). The final results should shed a more accurate light on household sizes, and demographics.

A study into the recession based on Census data

Of course, thinking about the census, one has to wonder about the demographic changes in New York during the financial crisis of 2008 (and the aftermath in 2009). Luckily, the Census estimates each year can shed some light on what happened. We’ll finally be able to answer some burning questions, such as:

Did the population decrease or slow down (did people leave the city)? Did people living in Manhattan really leave and move to the outer boroughs? Did all those people living in 1-bedrooms or studios by themselves really shack up with their friends and start sharing apartments?

Based on anecdotal evidence (such as our friends and neighbors), we might be able to take a crack at some of these questions. However, just using the Census website, we can get actual estimates on demographics in Manhattan (New York County) versus some of the outer boroughs (Queens, Bronx, and Kings [Brooklyn] counties). It turns out the government provides easy access to all sorts of free information. We turn to the following sources:

* American Community Surveyhttp://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS

* Vintage Population Estimateshttp://www.census.gov/popest/counties/counties.html

Did people move out of the city? Where did they move to?

We’ve all heard stories about cash-strapped families and youths moving out of Manhattan into the surrounding boroughs. We might even have unlucky friends who were forced to move back home out of the city. Is there any truth to it? Well first, lets take a look at the population trend of New York City versus the other 100 largest counties in the country over the last decade. The graph below shows the year-over-year population changes of Manhattan vs the other counties.

New York vs Other 100 Cities Pop. Growth (%)

New York vs Other 100 Largest Counties Pop. Growth (%) Source: Census Population Estimate

Wow! Expected, but to this magnitude? While New York county (Manhattan), held its own in terms of growth, it took a nose-dive between 2008 and 2009 relative to the other 100 largest cities. Note that the sharp up-tick in population in 2001 (and the subsequent slower growth) may have been due to base-effects from a lowered population in 2000 (after the events of 9/11). So clearly, part of the >3% vacancy rate we hit sometime in 2009 was from people leaving the city – combined with excess inventory from new buildings coming online.

But let’s take another look – that of New York versus the boroughs. Here, we answer our second question. Was there a surge of population into Manhattan during the “booming” years of 2003 – 2007? And then a subsequent movement out? We use the same data-set and end up with this picture:

Manhattan vs Other NYC Counties

Manhattan vs Other NYC Counties Source: Census Population Estimate

Yes indeed. Not including the large spike in Manhattan population in 2001, Manhattan seems to have “taken away” population from the boroughs early in 2000. However, when 2008 hit, a complete shift happened. In fact, it seems the boroughs (Kings County [Brooklyn], Queens County, and Bronx County) grew while Manhattan shrank. Of course, some of the slow-down in overall growth started in 2008 – which we might be able to explain by inflation and higher costs early in the year. After all, didn’t oil hit ~$130 before plummeting 70-some % later that year?

Did people move out of their single apartments and shack up with friends?

To answer this question, we turn to the most recent data from the American Community Survey. Unfortunately, they only have full-year data through December 2008 (which is mingled with data for the entire year). As a result, we can’t draw the most accurate conclusion – and will have to wait for the 2009 data to come out. However, taking a preliminary look, we really can’t conclude that people started “shacking up” with their friends.

Manhattan Households / Household Sizes

Manhattan Households / Household Sizes

We can expect household size data to be somewhat dampened and lagged by the standard 12-month lease terms. However, just a preliminary look doesn’t suggest people moved in with their friends. In fact, it seems that between 2007 and 2008, people actually moved out to live on their own. Surprising isn’t it? Depending on the new data that comes out in the next few months, we might be able to debunk the rumor that people have been moving in together to save on rent.

As more data comes out, RentHop will be taking a closer look at the demographic changes over the last decade in New York (and the outer boroughs). We’ll be following up as the census data gets finalized. Stay tuned!

Broker Poker Tourney?!?

Posted in Market Trends, Undercover Broker on April 5th, 2010 by Lee – Be the first to comment

Manhattan real estate seems to be on the verge of a bottom, if not already there.  Sure, you can point to economic data, jobs reports, the S&P rally, inflation expectations, and disappearing landlord concessions.  These are all valid supporting points.  The real giveaway is the return of gratuitous broker gatherings, signaling a return of another gilded age.  Today we received an invitation to New York City’s first annual “Broker Poker Tourney!”

broker_tourney

For an event with only 48 players, I’m surprised we made it to the guest list!  Either they’ve heard a thing or two about the founders of RentHop, or we have done very will in our undercover infiltration of the apartment rental market.